Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

217
FXUS61 KRLX 071006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
606 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly drifts south through the day today,
focusing shower/thunderstorm chances. Possibly decaying MCS
arrival this evening. Active weather persists through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 605 AM Saturday...

No significant changes needed at this time. Have seen some
training convection across Harrison/Barbour county this morning
with mostly minor water issues reported thus far.


As of 255 AM Saturday...

Key Points:

* Slow moving, efficient convection may yield high water issues this
  morning.

* Low end threat for arrival of decaying MCS this evening with a
  potential damaging wind gusts.

A slow moving cold frontal boundary currently stationed in the
vicinity of the Ohio River will continue to make its way south
today, exiting the area by early this afternoon. Convergence along
this boundary will provide the focusing mechanism for convection
through the remainder of the overnight and into the late morning.
The main concern with this activity will be efficient, slow moving
and repetitive showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy
rainfall rates. Not expecting any widespread issues, but isolated
high water problems are possible, especially if any of these
repetitive heavy showers get over some already moist soils from
isolated heavy rain from the preceding days.

In the moist post frontal environment, additional isolated to
scattered storms are likely to fire up this afternoon with daytime
heating. Initially, deep layer shear remains on the modest side,
around 25-30KTs, so not expecting too much out of these.

A mid-level wave currently firing storms over OK will continue to
progress to the east through the day with a complex of storms
potentially developing into an MCS this afternoon. These would be
crossing KY/TN late this afternoon and potentially arriving across
our southwest by late this evening. It does appear that the
remaining decent mid-level lapse rates will be well south of us by
the time these arrive, so not confident in MCS maintenance into us.
SPC does have our southern counties outlooked in a marginal risk
for this activity, but this does appear to be a highly
conditional threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

A frontal boundary stalled across the region will gradually push
back northward on Sunday. In addition, an upper level short
wave will move across the area, enhancing the chances for
showers and thunderstorms. With some mid level dry air and most
unstable CAPES in the 1500 to 2500 range, could see some storms
produce damaging wind gusts. Some large hail is also possible
with a freezing level below 13K feet. With the ground becoming
saturated in many locations from storms on previous days, flash
flooding is a concern.

An upper level trough moves into the region Monday into
Tuesday. This will provide additional chances of showers and
thunderstorms, but will also push a cold front through the area.
With the ground becoming saturated in many locations from storms
on previous days, flash flooding is a concern on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

A high pressure system will build over the area on Wednesday,
providing dry weather. This dry weather will remain for most
locations on Thursday as the high shifts eastward. Models vary
on how fast moisture returns to the region, with some bring
chances of showers and thunderstorms back on Friday, while
others hold off until Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 600 AM Saturday...

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms focused in
the vicinity of a slow moving cold frontal boundary will slowly
migrate southeast this morning, with a bulk of activity exiting
by 16Z. Slow moving and heavy cores could linger for an
extended period if they can get on top of any given terminal
during this period.

Additional isolated pop-up showers and storms will be possible
late morning into this afternoon in the post frontal
environment - have largely kept out of the TAFs with low chances
at any given terminal. An additional complex of storms in the
form of a decaying MCS potentially arrives a little after 00Z -
best chances south.

Ceilings generally 008-025 this morning, becoming VFR late morning
into early afternoon. Visibility restrictions generally limited to
underneath heavy convection.

Winds generally light and variable ahead of the front, becoming
light and northerly behind it.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection affecting any
terminal could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms through
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JP